Friday, February 11, 2011

Really Colin? Really?!

I don’t listen to Colin Cowherd very much.  Any listening that does take place in the Herd is normally for the few minutes during a commercial break on 1310 The Ticket’s BAD Radio program during my lunch break.  Since I don’t hear much of what Cowherd says I haven’t a real opinion on whether he knows what he is talking about, but my general opinion of his show is that his opinions come across as though they are supreme and anyone who disagrees is a lesser-thinking being.
During Monday's show following Super Bowl XLV Cowherd made a statement I felt pretty sure was ludicrous and after some research I have come to the decision that Cowherd’s argument, while not completely preposterous, is null.
The argument in question is that in the NFL, defenses win championships.  Cowherd’s claim is he thinks that is the way things may have been in the past, but in today’s league it is all about elite quarterbacks.  His wording was something similar to, “If you gave me a choice between a great defense and a great quarterback I will take the quarterback 100 times out of 100.”
While I’m one who lives under the defense wins championships mentality, I have not ever ruled out that having a great quarterback is also important to winning Lombardi Trophies.  In fact, I personally think a team has to have elite, great, and better than good players in every single position to be a championship-caliber team.  So where does history stand on the quarterback vs. defense argument.  Let’s take a look.
I have researched all quarterbacks, offenses, and defenses since the 2000 season. I figure going back all the way to the Packers and Steelers of the 60s and 70s wouldn’t be completely fair, as Cowherd pointed out the league has changed and is now a passer-friendly game.  So looking at the two teams who played in every Big Game since Baltimore and New York battled one another in 2001, here is a breakdown of the regular season statistics for every AFC and NFC championship teams.  I have included the rating for each quarterback and yards gained and given up and points scored and allowed by the offensive and defensive units.

2000 Season:
QB:
Trent Dilfer (Baltimore Ravens) – Only starting eight regular season games Dilfer was ranked the 20th best quarterback in the league with a rating of 76.6.
Kerry Collins (New York Giants) – Ranked 12th among quarterbacks with an 83.1 rating.
Offense:
Baltimore – Under the leadership of two quarterbacks, the Ravens were in the middle of the pack offensively at 16th in yards gained and 14th in scoring.
New York Giants –Ranked 13th in yards gained and 15th in scoring.
Defense:
Baltimore – Considered by some to be the greatest defensive unit ever in football, this group was ranked second in yards allowed and 1st in points given up.
New York Giants – A solid group, ranking fifth in both yards and points allowed.
Summary:
It is no secret the Ravens defense won them the Lombardi Trophy and nobody denies that. Dilfer, who took over for a benched Tony Banks midway through the season, was no elite quarterback.  Like Kerry Collins, the quarterbacks who led the Ravens and Giants were just good enough to get wins with the defenses doing the brunt of the work to hold opposing offenses to the bare minimum in points.  This season certainly was one in favor of the “defenses wins championships” motto.

2001 Season:
QB:
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) – Not the starter at the beginning of the season but taking over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in week 2, Brady's 86.5 passer rating ranked him sixth among the leagues quarterbacks.
Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams) – Was the highest ranked quarterback with a 101.4 rating for the regular season.
Offense:
New England – The Patriots struggled to get yards, ranking 19th in the league, but were able to put points on the board, ranking sixth overall.
St. Louis – The Greatest Show on Turf had their way with defenses, as they ranked first in yards gained and scoring.
Defense:
New England – Like the offense’s divergence in yards and scoring, the Patriot defense was mediocre in stopping teams from going up and down the field, ranking 24th in yards allowed, but were able to keep teams out of the end zone, ranking sixth in points allowed.
St. Louis – The Rams defense didn’t slack off despite knowing their offensive counterparts would have no problem scoring enough to win games, as the defensive unit was ranked third in yards allowed and seventh in points allowed.
Summary:
It is certainly clear that from the regular season’s stats St. Louis was the better team with the best quarterback, the best offense, and the better defense.  New England had what would become an elite quarterback, but its offense and defense had some warts.  I would say that this season likely goes to the quarterbacks, but the defenses certainly weren’t slumming it.

2002 Season:
QB:
Brad Johnson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – As a Cowboys fan who saw what a decrepit figure this guy was late in his career, it amazes me he was ranked the third best quarterback in the league at one time, with a 92.9 rating.
Rich Gannon (Oakland Raiders) – Doing slightly better than his Super Bowl rival, Gannon had a 97.3 regular season passerrating, putting him at second in the league.
Offense:
Tampa Bay – Despite having the third best quarterback in the league, moving the ball and scoring was difficult for the Buccaneers, ranking 24th in yards gained and 18th in scoring.
Oakland – It is odd to see the Raiders successful in the new millennium, but during this season they had a prolific offense ranking first in yards and second in scoring.
Defense:
Tampa Bay – This unit was the personification of great, ranking first in yards and points allowed.
Oakland – The defensive side of the ball for the Raiders wasn't quite as stellar as the offense, but they were able to rank 11th in yards allowed and sixth in points allowed.
Summary:
For the eventual champion Buccaneers, this is a case of having an elite squad on one side of the ball and a legitimately productive quarterback under center.  Both units worked hand-in-hand to become the best team in the NFL.  The Raiders mostly profited from their offense and Gannon as quarterback, but the defense was nothing to slough off.  This season would go down as a tie for both the quarterback and the defense being essential to winning a championship.

2003 Season:
QB:
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) – Barely cracking the top ten, Brady finished with an 85.9 passer rating.
Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) – With an 80.6 passer rating, Delhomme finished the regular season as the 14th best quarterback in the league.
Offense:
New England – Both of the conference champion teams were in the middle of the pack by the end of the regular season, with the Patriots ranked 17th in yards gained and 12th in scoring.
Carolina – The Panthers were slightly more consistent and mediocre than the Patriots, ranking 16th in yards gained and 15th in scoring.
Defense:
New England – Brady didn’t have to throw 50 touchdowns during the regular season, a feat he would accomplish later in his career, as the defensive unit was mighty good, ranking seventh in yards gained against them and allowing the fewest points per game in the league.
Carolina – The Panthers defense was functional, making it in the top third of the league in yards allowed at eighth and points allowed at 10th.
Summary:
Having Brady would lead one to assume the team’s offense was a powerhouse juggernaut, but he, along with Delhomme, were not the best passers the league had to offer and the offenses suffered for it.  However, the defenses were better than average and if a winner had to be decided I would say this season goes to the defenses.  While they certainly weren’t elite, they had to be better than the team they were up against since the offenses were so run of the mill.

2004 Season:
QB:
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) – Another season, another top ten finish for Brady, who ranked ninth among quarterbacks with a 92.6 passer rating.
Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) – Prior to the very public T.O. break-up, McNabb was able to have a superstar season in 2004, ending up with a 104.7 rating that was good enough for being fourth best in the NFL.
Offense:
New England – Brady helped improve the offense from the prior season, finishing the regular season as the seventh best in yards gained and fourth best in scoring.
Philadelphia – Although the better passer according to the QB rating system, McNabb and the Eagles offense ranked lower than the Patriots, at ninth in yards and eighth in scoring.
Defense:
New England – Opposed to what the team’s offense did, the defense took a slight dip in productivity from the prior season finishing the year out as ninth best in yards allowed and tied for second place in points allowed.
Philadelphia – The Eagles were the team the Patriots tied for second in points allowed and they were slightly worse off in yards against, finishing 10th.
Summary:
Top ten finishes in every category, this season will go down as a tie for quarterback and defense.

2005 Season:
QB:
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) – A controversial figure on and off the field, Roethlisberger quickly established himself as one of the premier quarterbacks in the league, finishing his second regular season as the third best quarterback with a 98.6 rating.
Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks) – Coming within four-tenths of a point of Roethlisberger’s passer rating at 98.2, Hasselbeck ranked as the fourth best in the league.
Offense:
Pittsburgh – The Steelers offense generated under Roethlisberger’s leadership couldn’t quite match his individual statistics around the league as the unit was 15th in yards gained and ninth in scoring.
Seattle – The Seahawks offense was best in the league in 2005, ranking second in yards and first in scoring.
Defense:
Pittsburgh – Ultimately known for a smash-mouth defense, this Steelers unit did not disappoint, ranking fourth in yards allowed and tied for third in points allowed.
Seattle – Not being able to keep up with the team’s offense, the defensive side of the ball was 16th in yards and seventh in points allowed.
Summary:
On the surface this looks like a winner for the quarterbacks, both being in the top five for the season and generating good-to-great offenses, but if you look at the statistical line for Super Bowl XL you will see the winning quarterback played terribly.  Roethlisberger went 9 for 21, threw for 123 yards total, had two interceptions and one rush touchdown.  For a Super Bowl-winning performance that is dreadful and the team ultimately won because the Steelers defense was able to contain the Seahawks offense and prevent a lot of points from being scored.  By doing that the Steelers scored three times and ultimately won the game.  By Colin’s pretext, Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger should have been the deciding factors in the championship game because they were elite quarterbacks that year, but ultimately the Steelers defense held the Seahawks superior offense to 10 points and that was the difference in the two teams.  I would have to say defense won the Lombardi Trophy that year, not elite quarterbacking.

2006 Season:
QB:
Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts) – Manning was the best quarterback the league had to offer, finishing with a 101 rating.
Rex Grossman (Chicago Bears) – A Dr.Jekyll/Mr. Hyde season for Grossman resulted in the quarterback ranking 24th among passers with a season rating of 73.9.
Offense:
Indianapolis – Manning was an essential part in leading the offense to be the third best team in gaining yards and tied the Bears for second in scoring.
Chicago – Despite Grossman’s rollercoaster ride of a season and the 15th ranked offense in yards gained, the Bears found enough ways to score that they were tied with the Colts at second.
Defense:
Indianapolis – Like so many of Manning’s teams, the defense played poor all season long, ranking 21st in yards allowed and 23rd in points scored against.
Chicago – Holding themselves to a very high standard, the Bears finished fifth in yards against and third in points allowed.
Summary:
Like the previous year’s Big Game, it came down to an elite quarterback against a superb defense and this year the quarterback came out on top.  Therefore the quarterback will get the vote this time.  I have to be fair.

2007 Season:
QB:
Eli Manning (New York Giants) – If you recall anything from this season it is likely the helmet catch Manning, who ranked 25th among quarterbacks with a regular season passer rating of 73.9, threw to David Tyree during the winning drive in the Super Bowl.
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) – If you recall anything from this season it is likely Brady, the best quarterback in the league with a 117.2 rating, going for perfect and falling short because of a helmet catch in the Super Bowl.
Offense:
New York Giants – Not surprising since Manning was middling, the offense was middling and ranked 16th in yards gained and 14th in scoring.
New England – Setting a record for touchdown passes, Brady torched defenses, sometimes running up scores on opponents, and had the best ranked offense in numerous categories, including yards and scoring.
Defense:
New York Giants – Considering the weak offense, one would think the defense is what helped win this team a championship, however, the best it could do was come in at seventh in yards allowed and 17th in points against.
New England – Despite not really needing to do too much since Brady's offense was decimating opponents, the defense was still able to come in at fourth in yards and points against, which could have been a result of teams getting behind early and becoming one-dimensional in order to play catch-up.
Summary:
Possibly one of the most favored teams to win a championship in sports history, nobody truly gave the Giants a chance to win against the Patriots, despite a close game the two teams had played in the final week of the regular season.  Statistically the Patriots were the better team and had a championship been won it would have been because of quarterback Brady.  Since the Giants won the game and had neither a great quarterback nor defense to do it with, I can’t honestly grade this season.  I am going to have to say the championship was won because of fate, destiny, God’s will, or whatever you wish to call it.  Neither side gets the vote.

2008 Season:
QB:Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) – One of two down years for Roethlisberger, 2008 saw him as the 24th best quarterback in the regular season with an 80.1 passer rating.
Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals) – Continuing his Cinderella story of grocery store stocker to NFL quarterback star, Warner had a 96.9 passer rating, good enough to be the third best quarterback in the league.
Offense:
Pittsburgh – With a quarterback playing poorly, it is no surprise the offense didn’t generate much to be proud of, resulting in being 22nd in yards and 20th in scoring.
Arizona – Polar opposite to the Steelers, Warner and the Cardinals offense went on the attack and finished fourth in yards gained and tied for third in scoring.
Defense:
Pittsburgh – Coming through for Big Ben, the stereotypical Steelers defense ranked first in both yards allowed and points against.
Arizona – Again differing as much as possible to the Steelers, the Cardinals defensive unit ranked 19th in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed.
Summary:
Even though the defense nearly gave the game up in the fourth quarter and Roethlisberger was Superman-like during the winning drive to victory, I still have to give the defense credit for this year’s championship.  Had it not been for the defense the Steelers wouldn’t have even been in the Big Game and had the chance for the come-from-behind win.  While the Cardinals offense was instrumental in getting to the championship game, it was the lack of a great defense that prevented them from holding on for the win.

2009 Season:
QB:
Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) – Not quite Brady in ’07, but certainly was a logistical nightmare for opposing defenses, Brees was the highest rated quarterback in the league with a 109.6 passer rating.
Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts) – Another solid season for Manning, who was sixth best with a 99.9 passer rating for the regular season.
Offense:
New Orleans – Having the best quarterback, it is no surprise the team had the best executed offense being first in yards and scoring.
Indianapolis – Not shabby in their own right, the Colts finished the regular season at ninth in yards gained and seventh in scoring.
Defense:
New Orleans – Not exactly feeding off the offenses’ talent and electricity, the Saints defense ranked 25th in yards allowed and 20th in points against.
Indianapolis – About par for the Manning-led Colts, the ordinary defense finished at 18th in yards allowed and eighth in points allowed.
Summary:
There is no question this is a quarterback wins championships year.  No debating that.

2010 Season:
QB:
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) – Answering the question of whether he is the real deal, Rodgers was the third best passer in the league with a 101.2 rating.
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Missing four games didn’t mess with Roethlisberger’s feel for the game or his connection with receivers and he finished as the fifth best quarterback, with a 97 passer rating.
Offense:
Green Bay – Despite losing a starting running back and tight end, the offense remained in the playoff hunt and finished at a respectable ninth in yards gained and 10th in points scored.
Pittsburgh – Including the four games without Roethlisberger, where the Steelers ran out quarterbacks Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch, the offense ranked 14th in yards and 12th in scoring.
Defense:
Green Bay – If the loss of some offensive starters due to injury was tough to bear, the defensive injury hit list was soul crushing, but the team kept fighting and ultimately ranked fifth in yards given up and second in points allowed.
Pittsburgh – Not surprising the defensive unit ended the regular season as the second best in yards allowed and first in points scored against.
Summary:
After putting up outstanding numbers in 2010 and an MVP performance in Super Bowl XLV, Rodgers now has a little bit of a reason to be the cockiest player in the NFL.  Yet, he was not the sole reason for bringing a fourth Lombardi Trophy to Green Bay.  The defense certainly deserves some credit and ultimately the vote for who won the championship in 2010 is going to go to both.

After hours of exhaustive research and typing it has been determined that you need both a great defense and quarterback (in essence, the offense) to be a championship contender and winner.  Sometimes a quarterback can overcome the failings of an entire unit, and other times it is the opposite.  From 2000 to 2010, there were four votes for the defense alone winning championships, three for the quarterback alone, three for it taking both, and one no vote being tallied.
While it is close and having an elite quarterback or elite defense is going to give you a good chance at making a championship run, I would rather have 11 guys who will carry my team than one.  Should the quarterback go down for a long period of time there is little hope of salvaging the season, but if you lose one defensive player, no matter how great they are, the other 10 can step up to make up the difference.
Like many of the opinions Cowherd spews on his program that sound as if they are fact, the idea that defenses don’t win championships and elite quarterbacks do is not the end all, say all.  Sometimes one man can lead a team to ultimate victory, but in general you need every single guy on the team playing to their full potential.

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